By Danny R. Johnson – Political News Editor
NEW YORK, NY–On May 31, following his trial in a New York state court where he was convicted on thirty-four felony counts on election interference charges to paying off porn star Stormy Daniels, the once and potentially future president, Donald Trump, held a post-trial press conference.
However, this event was far from typical. Trump’s speech lacked focus, and he rambled about diverse topics, including “Little League games,” “propane stoves,” rainy weather, and immigrants living in “luxury hotels.” Although it was not a traditional press conference with questions and answers, it also did not turn out to be the feared call to action.
Trump may already be leveraging his sentencing date, July 11, to galvanize his supporters and GOP leaders, like his January 6, 2021, actions. Previously, as president, he had the resources of the presidency to challenge his electoral defeat and obstruct the transition of power. However, this time, he lacks those presidential tools. Nonetheless, Trump continues to signal violence or use the threat of violence from his supporters as a campaign tactic. Indeed, right-wing social media has been rife with threats against jurors and calls for violence following the verdict. This pattern of behavior, and Trump’s failure to denounce these actions, is not a new development, yet it remains inexcusable.
Firstly, Trump knows that his conduct between the verdict and sentencing could influence the judge’s decision on the penalty. Throughout the trial, Trump took the risk of irritating Judge Juan Merchan by breaking gag orders and labeling him a “devil” and a “tyrant.” However, Trump’s legal proceedings have not yet been concluded. Shortly before the Republican National Convention next month, Judge Merchan will reconvene the court to decide Trump’s sentence, considering several factors, which may include the presence of a crowd outside.
Secondly, much has transpired since January 6, 2021, and Trump has reasons to be concerned about his ability to draw large crowds. The MAGA movement, while angry, lacks organization. “Mass mobilizations are challenging and necessitate effort,” noted Ali Breland of The Atlantic, which includes mundane logistical tasks. Currently, there appears to be no such mobilization effort for Trump. Moreover, as previously mentioned, Trump’s supporters may be incensed, but they are scattered in disarray, and many are incarcerated due to prosecutions following January 6. Key figures from the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys, who were instrumental in the planning before the Capitol riot, have been convicted and are imprisoned for seditious conspiracy. Trump’s rallies are now smaller, yet he persists in misrepresenting the attendance figures.
A notable lack of organized support for Trump on the streets marked the trial’s atmosphere. While GOP elites and potential vice-presidential candidates showed support by attending the courtroom, the overall display was subdued. The notion that Trump’s supporters would be absent in liberal New York City is contradicted by the fact that Trump secured 40 percent of the New York vote in 2020, indicating they could have attended if desired. Trump prefers to claim widespread support, as evidenced by his false assertion of leading Biden significantly, rather than demonstrating it.
Thirdly, Trump must secure an election victory, which requires garnering more votes in key states. Independents might hesitate to vote for a convicted felon. However, it is unclear how much this will impact their decision—the initial evidence indicates there may be more of the former, but it is not definitive. Trump is also consolidating his party’s support in an authoritarian manner, which is straightforward given the GOP’s submissive track record. However, this is simpler than broadening his voter base. His attempt to gain support at the Libertarian National Convention backfired, attracting more hecklers than supporters.
Trump lost the election in 2020. He lost in court last week. He is on a longtime losing streak and knows the only way to turn that around is to win the presidency. The likelihood that Trump cannot help himself is always high, and he could easily beckon violence on his social-media platform and get a response from the die-hard fringe. But Trump may be calculating that a spectacle of unruly masses on July 11—assuming he could get them—would not be such a great look for a presidential candidate when the entire world is watching.
