By SDCN Staff
Washington, D.C.–The National Retail Federation on Thursday released its annual holiday forecast, projecting that retail sales for November and December will rise between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to last year.
That growth would bring total spending to between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, up from $976.1 billion in 2024, when sales increased 4.3% over the previous year.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” said National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
National Retail Federation Chief Economist Mark Mathews noted that the economy has shown “surprising resilience” despite ongoing trade uncertainty and inflation pressures.
“As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices, given the uncertainty about trade policies,” Mathews said.
Retailers are also gearing up for the holiday rush by adding staff. The NRF expects companies to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, reflecting a slower labor market compared to last year’s 442,000 hires. Mathews added that some hiring may have been shifted earlier in the year to support October holiday promotions, with additional staffing decisions likely to depend on spending trends in the coming weeks.
A potential challenge this year is the ongoing federal government shutdown, which economists warn could dampen consumer demand if it continues deep into the holiday season. Delays in federal spending could temporarily reduce private-sector income, further straining household budgets.
Despite these headwinds, consumers still plan to spend generously. According to NRF’s separate holiday survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, shoppers expect to spend an average of $890.49 per person on gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items — the second-highest level in the survey’s 23-year history.
The National Retail Federation’s forecast is based on economic modeling that incorporates factors such as consumer spending, disposable income, employment, wages, inflation, and historical retail sales data. The projection excludes sales from auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing instead on core retail activity from November 1 to December 31.
National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to surpass $1 trillion
