Mitt Romney address the audience at CPAC 2011 in Washington, D.C. File photo: Gina Yarbrough
By Danny R. Johnson
WASHINGTON–Mitt Romney was projected the winner of the Tuesday, January 3, Iowa Caucus. The former Massachusetts governor emerged victorious over former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Penn.) by a razor-thin margin of just eight votes. The results, announced early Wednesday by the Iowa GOP, showed Romney had 30,015 votes to 30,007 for Santorum. Ron Paul finished in third place with 26, 219 votes.
Despite the victory, Romney was unable to garner 25% percent of the vote. With 99.5% of precincts reporting, Romney won 24.6% to Santorum’s 24.5%. In all, more than 122,000 straw ballots were cast, a record for Iowa Republicans.
What a difference a week makes: Before Tuesday’s caucus, Santorum experienced a surge in momentum and support as reflected in the polls. On Wednesday morning, he almost snatched a victorious moment away from Romney. After enjoying all the benefits of a divided opposition throughout the 2012 campaign, the former Massachusetts governor now faces a relatively-clearly defined “not-Romney” conservative in the form of Santorum, whose position could actually improve with the exit of Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann. Indeed, as Santorum campaigns in New Hampshire, he is getting an assist from at least one remaining candidate, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who finished fourth in Iowa but promised to continue a campaign that now seems to be focused on nothing so much as attacking Romney.
Romney and his aides are spinning their Iowa Caucus “win” as hard as they can as they head into the more troubled waters of the rapidly approaching South Carolina and Florida primaries. Romney’s big “news” of the week was an announcement of support from Arizona Senator John McCain, the party’s 2008 nominee. However, McCain, never a favorite of movement conservatives, will do little to secure support from the majority of Republicans who tell pollsters they would like someone, anyone, other than Romney as their nominee.
Anyone but Romney movement is alive and well
How many Republicans are looking for a not-Romney? A lot, if the Iowa results are any indication.
“No matter how Romney’s establishment allies try to spin it, Tuesday’s results show conservatives have strengthened their opposition to Mitt Romney’s candidacy,” announced veteran conservative strategist Richard Viguerie. “The fact that conservative candidates garnered three times as many votes as Mitt Romney did speak volumes about how narrow and shallow Romney’s support is and the likelihood that the nomination will not be settled until the GOP Convention in Tampa.”
Even Republican-leaning pundits acknowledge that there is no enthusiasm for Romney. A group of American evangelical leaders will gather in Texas next weekend to discuss a possible GOP candidate endorsement. Religious leaders who are expected to attend include James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family, and Don Wildmon, former chairman of the American Family Association (both speakers at Governor Rick Perry’s prayer rally in August 2011).
The group is the same one that held a secretive meeting with Perry at a ranch outside Austin in August 2011. This time they will be at a couple’s private ranch near Brenham, Texas “with the purpose of attempting to unite and come to a consensus on which Republican presidential candidate to support or which not to support,” according to the Christian Post.
Overall Tuesday’s Republican Caucus turnout in Iowa was only slightly better than in 2008. When 119,000 Republicans voted. Remarkably, were it not for the independents — who made up roughly a quarter of this year’s caucus crowd, and who leaned hard toward Paul — the Republican total would have dipped below 100,000. “When you take out the independents that showed up to back Ron Paul, this was actually a lower turnout than Republicans saw in 2008,” said conservative blogger Erick Erickson who explained that Republicans “don’t particularly care for (Romney).”
Despite the distaste for Romney, Santorum faces an uphill climb. He will not have Romney’s money or organization: However, Santorum is not Romney. That should keep him in contention for weeks, perhaps months. In addition, even if he does not block Romney, Viguerie suggests that the ongoing race could create an opening for another, potentially stronger, conservative to make a late entry into the GOP race. “The vast majority of Republican primary voters want to vote for a principled, small government, constitutional conservative,” said Viguerie. “With 75 percent of the vote available, the door is now open to a new conservative standard bearer who can unite the party in the way Romney has failed to do.”
Ron Paul: The spoiler who will not disappear
Ron Paul speaks to a full house at CPAC 2011. Photo: Gina Yarbrough/San Diego County News
Officially, it is not quite a two-man race. The Republican field did narrow, quickly and drastically, after Iowa, at least through the next round looking toward the New Hampshire Primary on January 8, Romney and Santorum face continuing competition from one potentially formidable candidate: Ron Paul. New Hampshire polls show Paul coming in at second place or third place.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul says he is happy with his “good showing” in Iowa, where he finished third in the Republican presidential caucuses.
The Republican with a libertarian bent tells NBC’s “Today” show he felt it was a sound performance, and “it’s doing very well to be in the money” and getting an opportunity to go into New Hampshire.
Paul seeks to distinguish his brand of conservatism with “neo-conservatism,” saying he does not understand why “some conservatives think that the more money you spend overseas, the more conservative you are.”
Paul has been speaking sharply about reducing the American profile in the world, saying it needs to be less interventionist. He says he can be a significant factor in this year’s election campaign because his candidacy has attracted many young voters.
Asked in a CNN interview about assertions by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich that his foreign policy views are isolationist and dangerous, Paul called that laughable.
Paul said he never votes for spending that the country cannot afford, opposes tax increases and opposes unwise military interventions and does not understand how Gingrich can call him dangerous.
The Texan said that when Gingrich was called to military service in the Vietnam era, “he chickened out on that … so who’s the danger to the country.”
“So Newt Gingrich has no business talking about danger because he’s putting others in danger,” Paul said. He said some people call Gingrich’s brand of politics “chicken-hawk.”
The prospect of a closely contested and possibly bloody Republican nomination battle cheered President Barack Obama’s campaign strategists. Said one: “The longer the Republican race goes on, the more it serves our purposes. They’ll have to spend their time and money fighting each other rather than uniting their side to beat up on the President.” In addition, the fiercer the fight gets, the more difficulty the eventual winner may have unifying the party for the fall campaign.
Danny R. Johnson is San Diego County News’ Washington, DC based National News Correspondent.
