Los Angeles, CA–The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund released its 2022 California Latino Voter Profile, which offers a comprehensive analysis of the Latino electorate in California, including projected voter turnout, demographic trends, and population growth.
With the California Primary taking place next week on June 7, the profile examines the local and national political factors shaping the state’s Latino electorate, such as the recent redistricting. The profile also highlights NALEO Educational Fund’s projection of Latino voter turnout in California ahead of the general election.
According to the projections, more than 3.2 million Latinos in California will cast their ballots this November, mirroring 2018’s historic turnout numbers and marking a 90.5 percent increase from 2014. In addition, California’s Latino voters are expected to be younger than their non-Latino counterparts, with 42 percent of all California’s Latino registered voters falling in the 18–34 age bracket; conversely, only 24 percent of California’s non-Latino voters are projected to fall in this same age range.
“California’s primary will feature several competitive statewide and congressional elections and will lay the foundation for races the nation will watch closely come November. Latinos care about the issues and look to leaders who will be responsive to their concerns,” said NALEO Educational Fund CEO Arturo Vargas. “Latinos are nearly one-third (30.5 percent) of the state’s voting-age citizens, and they have the potential to continue determining the outcome of contests throughout California. Amid these projections, it is critical that Latino outreach and engagement efforts are sustained in the lead up to the election and after.”
Key Findings Include:
- More than 3.2 million Latinos in California will cast their ballots in 2022, marking a 90.5 percent increase from 2014.
- The Latino share of all California voters in 2022 is expected to be 25.3 percent, which mirrors the Latino share in 2018 and is a 32.5 percent increase from 2014.
- More than 30 percent of voting-age citizens in California are Latino.
- Latino registered voters in California tend to be younger than non-Latinos, with 18–24-year-olds comprising 17 percent of registered Latino voters in the state, compared to 8 percent of non-Latinos. Similarly, 25 percent of Latino registered voters are 25–34-year-olds, compared to only 16 percent of non-Latinos.
- Between 2010 and 2020, California’s Latino population grew from 14 million to 15.6 million, an 11.2 percent increase that accounts for over two-thirds (68.6 percent) of the state’s total population growth.
- In 2021, 1,833 Latinos served in California elected office. This number was comprised of one U.S. Senator, 14 U.S. Representatives, two-state executives, 30 state legislators, and 1,786 serving at the local level — including county, municipal, school board, judicial and law enforcement officials, and special district officials.
Several factors will shape the political landscape for California’s midterm elections, including the consolidation of many local elections with the state and congressional election calendar; 2020–2022 redistricting; the competitiveness of congressional and statewide contests; the increased availability of options for casting ballots (e.g., early voting, vote centers, and vote-by-mail); and the effectiveness of voter engagement efforts targeting the Latino community.
|% Change between|
2018 and 2022
|% Change between|
2014 and 2022
*Not Statistically Significant